Source: Fortune
Summary
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is on the verge of collapse as tensions escalate in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has launched new attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, and has threatened to halt peace talks. The U.S. has responded with airstrikes, and President Donald Trump has warned of devastating consequences if Iran continues its actions. However, Trump has also signaled reluctance to go back to war. The situation is further complicated by Iran’s efforts to shut down an alternate route through the strait that is protected by the U.S.
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The numbers tell one story. Iran is choking Hormuz, forcing a brutal choice: escalate or surrender control. President Donald Trump has called Iran’s actions a violation of the ceasefire, but has also signaled reluctance to go back to war. The U.S. Navy is making a point of showing that the alternate route is still safe, but commercial shipping companies are caught in a trap. Iran’s strategic logic is to force the strait to stay mostly closed and cut off oil flows again.
The announcement sounds familiar. Iran is forcing the ‘escalation trap.’ The collision course is set, and worse is yet to come. The war for the Strait of Hormuz has entered a highly dangerous new phase. Iran has no intention of going back to business as usual in the strait.
