Source: Fortune
Summary
Apollo Chief Economic Torsten Slok notes that despite high hopes for AI’s impact on the economy, it has yet to show up in macro data. He recalls economist Robert Solow’s quip from the 1980s about computers not being reflected in productivity statistics, and says the same can be said about AI today. While investors are selling off shares in industries that could be disrupted by AI, evangelists like Elon Musk predict significant economic gains. However, Slok is skeptical, citing studies that forecast minimal impact on total factor productivity growth.
Our Reading
The numbers tell one story.
Apollo’s Torsten Slok is not convinced by AI’s promise, citing lack of evidence in macro data. Elon Musk predicts AI will make working optional, but Slok remains skeptical. The Penn Wharton Budget Model forecasts a minimal impact on total factor productivity growth. The Congressional Budget Office also estimates a conservative view of AI’s impact. The Labor Department’s revised job gains data raises questions about AI’s effect on productivity.
It seems AI is still searching for its Solow moment.
Author: Evan Null
