Source: Fortune
Summary
Job-hopping, once a reliable way to boost earnings, is losing its financial appeal. In August, the quits rate hit a low of 1.9%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Bank of America data shows job switchers saw a smaller pay increase in 2026 compared to previous years. The gap between pay for switchers and stayers narrowed to its smallest in seven years. New research suggests varied experience is now more valuable, but young workers face fewer opportunities to gain it. Employers are hesitant to hire, leading to a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market.
Our Reading
The numbers tell one story.
Quits are down. Pay premiums for job switchers are shrinking. Employers are cautious. Workers are staying put. Gen Z is still looking, but not seeing the same rewards. The labor market favors employers. The old rules don’t apply anymore.
Employers aren’t paying for movement. Workers aren’t moving for pay. The game has changed, but no one’s talking about it.
Author: Evan Null
Gen Z’s job market woes
The typical new hire is no longer a bright-eyed college grad but someone in middle age. The average age of a worker starting a new job climbed to 42 in 2025, up from 40.5 in 2022, according to Revelio Labs. The low-hire, low-fire labor market is hitting the youngest generation hardest, as employers with limited hiring budgets prioritize experience over taking a chance on younger, less-trained candidates.
Stories of young job seekers firing off hundreds of applications without landing an offer have become all too common. The unemployment rate for recent college graduates—those ages 22 to 27—was about 5.6% in the second quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, well above the 4.2% rate for all workers as of September, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
AI and the shifting job landscape
Many young people blame AI, which took off after OpenAI released ChatGPT in late 2022. According to a January iCIMS Workforce Report, 51% of Gen Z feel AI is the greatest threat to their job security. But the real culprit is more likely a whirlwind of simultaneous changes. Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok has argued that Fed tightening, trade-war uncertainty, slowing immigration, and the “general low-hire, low-fire labor market” are the more likely drivers.
Despite all the tumult, Gen Z is still down to make moves. Even among those lucky enough to have a job, a significant portion of the generation wants to ditch their current employers for greener pastures.
Gen Z’s job-hopping intentions
Around 55% of Gen Z professionals plan to look for a new job before the end of this year, according to recent data from recruitment and staffing firm Robert Half. That’s up 23 percentage points from a year ago, when only 32% said the same. “Career expectations have shifted for many younger professionals, and Gen Z tends to be especially intentional about finding roles that align with where they want to go professionally,” Dawn Fay, operational president at Robert Half, told Fortune.
Bank of America’s data shows they’re following through. More than one in four Gen Z workers changed companies in the first quarter—more than 10 percentage points higher than millennials and more than triple the rate of baby boomers. Switching still pays off for them: Gen Z job switchers saw more than four times the wage growth of peers who stayed put. But those raises are far smaller than they used to be, with pay increases for Gen Z switchers down 20 percentage points since early 2022—a sobering trend for a generation already struggling to find its footing.
