Source: Fortune
Summary
Pantheon Macroeconomics’ analysis suggests that AI capital expenditures and the “wealth effect” from tech stock gains contributed significantly to US GDP growth in Q4 2025. Nvidia’s Q4 2025 earnings beat expectations, with record-high revenue of $68.1 billion. The AI economy is holding up despite a recent wobble triggered by a report predicting mass unemployment in 2028. Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures were flat, while S&P 500 futures were also flat. Pantheon believes AI has not yet shown up in headline productivity growth but has accelerated productivity in sectors with high AI adoption.
Our Reading
The numbers tell one story.
Nvidia’s earnings beat expectations, but the real story is the increasing portion of US GDP growth coming from AI capital expenditures and the “wealth effect” from tech stock gains. Pantheon’s analysis suggests this contributed to a third of headline GDP growth in Q4 2025. The AI economy is holding up, despite a recent wobble. Nvidia’s record-high revenue of $68.1 billion is a testament to this. The company’s CEO, Jensen Huang, seems confident, but the question remains: what happens if investors start to doubt the AI story?
Author: Evan Null
