Source: Fortune.com
Summary
NOAA predicts that this year’s El Nino will become “very strong” by fall, with an 81% chance of reaching the top category. This could lead to droughts, downpours, and heat waves, particularly in the fall and winter. The El Nino has already surpassed the weak stage and is now considered moderate, with no signs of slowing down. Ocean temperatures in key parts of the Pacific are at or near record highs for this time of year, partly due to ocean warming from human-caused climate change.
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The numbers tell one story. This El Nino is predicted to rival the 1997-1998 El Nino, with some meteorologists expecting it to be even stronger. The World Bank estimated that the 1997 El Nino led to 23,000 deaths in weather disasters and cost governments up to $45 billion. This El Nino is not only breaking records for the time of year, but it’s also on top of considerable background warming from the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas.
A very strong El Nino increases the chances for extreme weather conditions, but doesn’t necessarily translate to more intense weather. It’s expected to make the southern US rainier in the winter and the northern US and Canada warmer. El Nino usually dampens Atlantic hurricane season, and Colorado State University has dramatically reduced its prediction for the number of storms.
The El Nino is expected to have global impacts, including a drier Indonesia and a warmer and wetter eastern Pacific. It’s also predicted to liberate years’ worth of accumulated heat stored in the subsurface tropical Pacific Ocean, warming the entire planet.
Many climate scientists are predicting that 2027 will break the 2024 global high temperature record due to pent-up heat. A strong El Nino would raise the odds of dramatic new climate records over the next 6 to 12 months, giving a taste of an even warmer world to come.
Author: Evan Null
