Source: Fortune
Summary
New York City public school enrollment has dropped to 885,000, down from over 1 million a decade ago, according to City Comptroller Mark Levine. The decline has led to 219 schools with fewer than 200 students. Families with young children are leaving the city at twice the rate of others, driven by high costs of living, housing, and childcare. A Fiscal Policy Institute report linked the outflow to affordability issues, calling it a policy failure. Rising childcare costs and housing shortages are major concerns for parents.
Our Reading
The numbers tell one story.
Enrollment drops, schools shrink, families flee.
Cost of living, not just taxes, pushes people out.
Childcare and housing dominate the pain points.
Parents are mapping new routes, not hiding in museums.
Author: Evan Null
The cost of raising a kid
The cost of raising a child in New York City has become a major factor in families leaving the city. A Fiscal Policy Institute report found that households with children under 6 were 112% more likely to move than those without. The report highlights affordability as a key issue, with housing and childcare costs being the primary drivers. Nationally, the cost of raising a child is over $300,000, with childcare being the largest expense for families with young children.
Childcare costs are particularly burdensome. The average cost for an infant and a 4-year-old is $28,190 a year, which would require a household income of over $400,000 to be affordable. However, the average two-child household earns only $145,656, making it difficult for many to afford quality childcare. This financial pressure is pushing families to leave the city in search of more affordable options.
Housing costs also play a significant role. A household needs at least $211,970 to afford a median-priced home in New York City, nearly three times the national average. Despite a slight decrease from the previous year, the cost remains prohibitive for most residents. Only 15% of city households earn $200,000 or more, making homeownership out of reach for the majority.
The combination of high childcare and housing costs is forcing many families to reconsider their place in the city. As a result, the public school system is shrinking, with 219 schools now having fewer than 200 students. This trend is expected to continue, with the city’s comptroller predicting another 150,000 fewer students over the next decade.
The outflow of families is not just a local issue but a national one. The cost of raising a child has risen across the country, and many parents are struggling to keep up. With the average two-child household spending 20% of their income on childcare, the financial strain is evident. A BMO survey found that 82% of parents believe the cost of raising children has gotten out of control, highlighting the growing crisis.
Declining birth rates
The decline in birth rates is also contributing to the drop in public school enrollment. The U.S. fertility rate fell to a record low in 2024, with fewer than 100,000 births in New York City since 2020. This trend is affecting the long-term sustainability of the city’s education system. The Fiscal Policy Institute report notes that the outflow of families is not limited to the wealthiest, with middle-income households also leaving due to affordability issues.
While the top 1% of earners leave the city at a much lower rate, middle-income families are more likely to move due to the high cost of living. According to Emily Eisner of the Fiscal Policy Institute, these families are not leaving because of taxes but because of the rising costs of childcare and housing. This shift is creating a new demographic challenge for the city’s public schools.
A recent survey by the New York City Education Department found that 40% of families who left the school system moved out of the city, citing better environments for raising children, concerns about school quality, and more housing space. These factors are shaping the decision-making of families who are looking for more affordable and stable living conditions.
Eisner suggests that policies such as universal free childcare could help alleviate the financial burden on families. Mayor Zohran Mamdani has proposed making childcare free for children from 6 weeks to 5 years old, which could provide relief to many households. Such measures could help reverse the trend of families leaving the city and ease the pressure on the public school system.
The challenge for the city is to find solutions that address both the immediate and long-term needs of families. With the cost of living continuing to rise, the pressure on parents to leave the city is likely to persist. The success of any policy initiatives will depend on their ability to reduce the financial strain on families and provide more affordable options for housing and childcare.
