Source: Fortune
Summary
Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz is closed, but the U.S. says oil is still flowing through the waterway. Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported 15 million barrels of oil and products leaving the strait on Tuesday, with total regional exports near 20 million barrels daily. U.S. officials said 10 million barrels a day are moving through a corridor along Oman’s coast. Tankers are using nighttime routes with transponders off, enabling shuttle runs. Vortexa’s David Wech noted peak daily exports reached 14 million barrels. Despite the U.S. naval blockade, oil continues to leave the Gulf, prolonging the conflict.
Our Reading
The numbers tell one story.
Iran claims control of the Strait of Hormuz, but U.S. officials say oil is still moving.
15 million barrels left the strait on Tuesday, with total exports near 20 million.
Tankers are using nighttime routes to avoid detection, enabling shuttle runs.
Oil flows are keeping the war from collapsing, but not ending.
Author: Evan Null
Iran’s Claim of Control Over the Strait of Hormuz
Iran has repeatedly stated that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and that it has full control over the vital waterway. This claim comes amid ongoing tensions between Iran and the U.S., as well as Israel, which has led to a war in the region. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for global oil trade, with 20 million barrels of oil passing through it daily before the conflict began.
U.S. Response and Oil Exports
The Trump administration has pushed back against Iran’s narrative, stating that the U.S. military has helped move 15 million barrels of oil and products through the strait. Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted that the seven-day average is 8 million barrels, but when combined with pipeline exports, the total is closer to 20 million. This suggests that the strait is not fully closed, despite Iran’s claims.
U.S. Military Corridor and Oil Transport
U.S. officials told Axios that about 10 million barrels of oil a day are being transported through a corridor along Oman’s coast, established by the U.S. military. This corridor allows for continued oil exports, even amid the ongoing conflict. The U.S. bombing campaign last month reportedly damaged Iran’s radar and maritime surveillance systems, making it easier for tankers to navigate undetected at night.
Oil Flow and Global Market Impact
Despite the U.S. naval blockade, oil continues to flow out of the Gulf, which has helped prevent a global market collapse. However, there is still a supply deficit, forcing consuming countries to tap into their reserves, which are reaching critically low levels. The continued flow of oil is buying time before the situation worsens, potentially prolonging the war as both sides remain in a stalemate.
Geopolitical Implications and Future Risks
Analysts suggest that the continued flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz raises the odds of a longer war, possibly extending into 2027. Neither side feels urgency as long as oil is moving, and Iran still earns enough to sustain its regime. However, the situation remains volatile, with potential for sharp crises as Iran’s economy suffers and the regime faces internal risks. The U.S. midterm elections also represent an opportunity for Iran to disrupt Trump’s administration by causing oil price spikes and voter discontent.
