Source: Fortune
Summary
The US and Iran are in a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, with each side trying to outlast the other. Despite Iran’s claims that the strait is shut down, data shows that a significant amount of oil is still flowing out of the Persian Gulf. The US administration claims that 9 million barrels of oil are leaving the strait daily, while energy expert Rory Johnston estimates that the number is around 7 million barrels per day. The US naval blockade is preventing Iran from exporting its oil, but other Gulf oil producers are finding ways to get their oil out through “dark transits” and ship-to-ship transfers.
Our Reading
The numbers tell one story. The US administration is betting that it has additional leeway in the standoff with Iran. Energy Secretary Chris Wright credits the US military and Gulf allies for the continued oil flows. The US naval blockade is squeezing Iran’s economy, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warns of “economic isolation like the world has never seen before.” The oil market reprieve gives Trump more time to pressure Iran. The situation is a familiar game of cat and mouse, with each side trying to outmaneuver the other.
Author: Evan Null
