Source: Fortune
Summary
Iran’s military has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again, following a series of mixed messages from the regime. The announcement came after Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strait was “completely” open to ships that followed Iran’s established route, which was later contradicted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC has taken a more assertive role in the regime’s military and diplomatic responses since the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The US naval blockade on Iran has prevented the strait from reopening, and the IRGC has warned that it will continue to play a dominant role in shaping Iranian decision-making.
Our Reading
The announcement sounds familiar.
The IRGC’s criticism of Araghchi’s declaration that the strait was fully open is reflective of broader divisions within the Iranian regime. The factional infighting in the regime has been exacerbated by the death of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The absence of a strong leader to keep IRGC factions in line means that these factions will likely continue to play a dominant role in shaping Iranian decision-making. The US naval blockade on Iran has prevented the strait from reopening, and the IRGC has warned that it will continue to target US ships. The regime’s economy, as well as the IRGC’s source of funds, will come under more strain.
The numbers tell one story, but the conflicting messages from the Iranian regime tell another.
Author: Evan Null
