Source: Fortune
Summary
Fortune reports that middle powers, as defined by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, are struggling to gain influence in global geopolitics. The article argues that private-sector companies, not nation-states, are now the primary actors in shaping global power. Examples include tech giants like Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon, whose market values rival national economies. The piece highlights how private firms are leading in AI, space exploration, and global challenges, with state actors increasingly relying on them. Middle powers are seen as lagging behind in AI development and investment, limiting their geopolitical influence.
Our Reading
The numbers tell one story.
Private firms now have market caps rivaling national GDPs.
States are relying on tech companies for global influence.
AI is being used for cyber operations and warfare.
Private sector actors are setting the rules of the new global order.
Author: Evan Null
The AI frontier
Nowhere is the private sector’s geopolitical influence more apparent than in AI. Increasingly, state actors are relying on non-state, private sector technology firms for capabilities that were once solely the domain of national agencies. Private firms like SpaceX and Blue Origin are leading 21st-century space exploration. Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network has reportedly been deployed across conflict zones from the Sahel to Iran and provides civilian internet access and battlefield intelligence in Ukraine.
AI models are being folded into operational planning, simulations, and cyber operations in service of foreign policy. Earlier this year, Anthropic, the AI safety company, clashed with the U.S. administration over how its models could be used by the Department of War. The Trump administration designated Anthropic a supply chain risk to U.S. national security—a first for an American firm.
Already in 2026, privately developed AI is being deployed for influence campaigns, biological weapons development, cyber operations, and surveillance by malign actors. Anthropic’s September threat report identified cases of misuse or attempted misuse of its Claude model for malicious activity. These instances include a cyber operation targeting a Southeast Asian government agency to extract civilian records; a threat actor based in China that used Claude to progress work on an undersea weapons system; and suspected Russia-based threat actors using AI with the intention of building an autonomous kamikaze drone swarm.
And, finally, Anthropic said it disrupted a plot by Iran to use Claude to target U.S. Navy warships in the Middle East.
To counter such activity, private AI companies are stepping into roles once held by national intelligence and defense agencies. There is no longer any denying that private sector actors are geopolitical actors.
Redrawing the rules
In Davos, Carney spoke of a fading rules-based order—of how the great powers had broken a bargain with their less powerful counterparts. His call is for these less powerful middle powers to withdraw their consent from a global order that no longer serves them and to chart a new path “with impact.”
It’s a tantalizing idea, offered at a moment of great change, when AI is defining how we think, work, fight, and manage risk. Old rules are not just fading but being redrawn entirely
But as the debate over AI safety shows, there’s no global consensus about how to govern the future’s most powerful technology. The leaders of private firms are stepping into that vacuum of state-led leadership and beginning to set the rules we live by.
The seats at the table are being taken not by middle powers but by private sector actors.
And so long as middle powers are not leading on AI development, attracting AI investment, or dominating parts of the AI supply chain—so long as they are not on the AI field—they will not exert geopolitical leverage in this emerging world.
