Source: Fortune
Summary
Russia’s economy is shrinking, with GDP contracting 0.5% in the first quarter, and businesses are struggling to keep up with debt payments. The country’s bond market is at risk, with nearly 25% of it facing default. The central bank has kept interest rates high to fight inflation, but this has made it harder for companies to refinance their debt. The situation is exacerbated by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which has increased logistics costs and stoked inflation. President Vladimir Putin has been absent from the economic front, spending more time managing the war and less time in public view.
Our Reading
The numbers tell one story.
Russia’s economy is in trouble, with 11 technical defaults in the first three months of 2026. The bond market is at risk, with nearly 25% of it facing default. Putin’s absence from the economic front is notable, as he spends more time managing the war and less time in public view. The situation is a systemic threat to the country’s bond market. The Kremlin’s internet blackouts and anti-drone measures have raised concerns among ordinary Russians. Putin’s approval rate has fallen to 65.6% from 77.8% at the start of the year.
Russia’s economy is defaulting on its own narrative.
Author: Evan Null
