SpaceX is about to make history—and 80% of VCs won’t see a dime of it

Summary

SpaceX’s upcoming IPO, valued at $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, has sparked hopes for a venture capital revival. However, Nizar Tarhuni, executive VP of research and market intelligence at PitchBook, believes it’s not a watershed moment for the industry. He estimates that only 20% of active venture capitalists are invested in SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic, leaving 80% on the sidelines. The companies’ massive size and capital requirements are driving them to go public, but this may not open the IPO window for others.

Our Reading

The numbers tell one story.

SpaceX’s IPO is an anomaly, driven by its massive capital requirements. Only 20% of active VCs are invested in SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic. The top tier of LPs got in early and will see a dramatic improvement in their numbers. A multi-year shakeout will ripple through the LP base, venture market, and buyout market. IPO windows come and go, but the lessons learned from this moment are timeless.

The strategy enters a familiar phase.