Source: Fortune
Summary
Jerome Powell is likely to lead only a few more Federal Reserve meetings before his term as chairman ends in May. Despite the drama surrounding his final year, Wall Street doesn’t expect any surprises from the meetings. The Fed is split on how quickly and steeply rates should be cut, and recent military action in Iran has increased oil prices and inflation expectations. Analysts expect Powell to announce no cut this week, with a 99% chance of a hold according to CME’s FedWatch.
Our Reading
The numbers tell one story. Powell’s term is ending, and the Fed is in a wait-and-see mode. The announcement sounds familiar, with a focus on geopolitical risks and uncertainty. The strategy enters a familiar phase, with a new chairman likely to take over soon. Powell’s press conference is expected to be cautious, with minor statement tweaks and a nod to geopolitical risks. The Fed is caught between hawkish and dovish views, with some analysts suggesting no cuts at all in 2026.
One original observation: The Fed is stuck in a holding pattern, waiting for the uncertainty to clear.
Author: Evan Null
