Source: Fortune
Summary
Energy analyst Bob McNally predicts a 75% chance of a US attack on Iran in the coming days or weeks, citing the recent arrival of a US aircraft carrier in the Middle East. McNally warns that this could lead to a sustained disruption in energy flows, with Iran’s oil infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz being key risks. Iran’s supreme leader has threatened a “regional war” in response to any US attack. McNally notes that the US military’s ability to clear the Strait of Hormuz is not guaranteed, and a prolonged blockage could lead to a surge in LNG prices.
Our Reading
The numbers tell one story.
Bob McNally’s 75% odds of a US attack on Iran in the coming days or weeks have oil markets on edge. The Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil passes through, is a major risk. McNally thinks the US Navy may not be able to quickly clear any underwater mines or threats. The Iranians have better weaponry and a better coastline to harass the strait. If the blockage lasts more than a day or two, the market will be shocked.
The calm before the storm is a familiar phase.
