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Summary
President Trump has signaled that the US will continue to bomb Iran, with the goal of achieving “peace throughout the Middle East and, indeed, the world.” Trump also confirmed the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, calling it a “single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their country.” The death of Khamenei could lead to a succession crisis, and while it’s unclear if a new regime will take over, it could potentially hasten the end of combat operations.
Our Reading
The strategy enters a familiar phase.
Trump’s ambitions for regime change in Iran have been clear, but the scope of his objectives may be broader than initially thought. The US has focused on military targets, while Israel has carried out decapitation strikes, including the killing of Khamenei. The Iranian regime’s leadership is in disarray, and it remains to be seen whether a new regime will take over or if hard-liners will maintain control.
The numbers tell one story, but the reality on the ground is another. Trump has “off ramps” for ending the conflict, but it’s unclear which path he will choose.
The announcement sounds familiar, but the stakes are higher than ever. The US and Israel’s actions have quickened Iran’s retaliation, and the region is on high alert.
One thing is certain: the situation is fluid, and the outcome is far from certain.
Author: Evan Null
