Source: Fortune
Summary
President Donald Trump signaled that the US will continue applying economic pressure on Iran, despite deciding against renewing all-out war. Trump stated that Iran’s collapsing economy will give the US leverage in negotiations. He claimed that Iran can’t pay its troops and described the country’s economy as being in “very bad shape”. The US naval blockade has worsened the economic crisis, while the American public is under less strain due to falling oil prices. Iran has been in talks with Oman over managing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but an agreement won’t automatically reopen the strait.
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The strategy enters a familiar phase.
Trump is using economic pressure to negotiate with Iran, while Iran’s economy is on the brink of collapse. The US naval blockade has worsened the crisis, and Iran’s president and central bank chief have told the Supreme Leader that the blockade is crippling the economy. Trump sounds hopeful about a deal, but both sides blame each other for being dishonest or untrustworthy. The US is quietly allowing 8 million barrels of oil to exit the Persian Gulf each night through a southern lane in the Strait of Hormuz.
The US is playing a waiting game, letting Iran’s economy implode, while Trump’s military options have narrowed. The absence of war may serve Trump’s purposes, as it forces Iran to address its economic crisis.
The situation is a chess game, where the US is using economic pressure to gain leverage, while Iran is trying to navigate the crisis. The question is, how long will the US wait for Iran to make a move?
Author: Evan Null
