Source: Fortune.com
Summary
The US and Iran are engaged in a stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz, with the US preventing Iran from exporting oil and importing goods, while Iran continues to launch missiles and claim the strait is closed. However, significant volumes of oil are still being transported through the strait using “dark” fleets and ship-to-ship transfers. The Trump administration has claimed that 8-9 million barrels of oil are being exported daily, while analysts estimate it to be around 7 million. The US naval blockade is cutting off Iran’s oil exports and revenue, but Iran is unlikely to be swayed by economic hardship and is prepared to wait out the situation.
Our Reading
The strategy enters a familiar phase.
The US and Iran are engaging in a war of attrition, with the US using economic pressure to try to bring Iran to the negotiating table. However, Iran’s repressive regime is unlikely to be swayed by economic hardship and is prepared to wait out the situation. The US military is also facing logistical concerns, including low interceptor stockpiles and mental health issues among personnel. Iran, meanwhile, has developed new missiles that are better at evading air defenses, making US military assets and allied oil infrastructure more vulnerable.
The US naval blockade is a game of cat and mouse, with Iran using “dark” fleets and ship-to-ship transfers to evade detection. The situation is unlikely to last, with Iran likely to hit back against the US blockade.
The US is playing a high-stakes game of economic pressure, but Iran has proven to have a higher pain tolerance.
The situation is a classic example of a “war of wills,” with both sides engaged in a test of endurance and resolve.
Iran’s economy is crumbling, but the regime is unlikely to be swayed by economic hardship.
The US is running out of options, with the naval blockade straining US forces and the military facing logistical concerns.
The situation is a powder keg, waiting for a spark to set it off.
Author: Evan Null
