Source: Fortune
Summary
President Donald Trump has again threatened a massive attack on Iran, but pulled back from the brink. Experts believe Iran is gaining the upper hand in the conflict, using its proxies to expand the war across the region. Iran has warned its Persian Gulf neighbors they will be targets in the event of a renewed bombardment, and has demonstrated that its long-range weapons can evade U.S. air defenses. Trump’s approval ratings on his handling of the economy and the Iran war have slumped, and Tehran sees leverage in the U.S. political calendar.
Our Reading
The announcement sounds familiar.
Iran is exploiting Trump’s political vulnerability, and the U.S. is hesitant to launch a broader campaign. The U.S. has depleted stockpiles of interceptors needed to repel Iranian attacks, making critical pieces of energy infrastructure more at risk. Global energy markets have sharply drawn down inventories of crude oil and refined products. The overall playing field has tilted in favor of the Islamic Republic.
Iran has succeeded in creating a form of mutual deterrence that is shaping Washington’s calculations.
Author: Evan Null
