Source: Fox News
Summary
The US is preparing for the possibility of renewed conflict with Iran if nuclear deal negotiations collapse. Analysts say the US would likely start by targeting Iran’s missile systems, naval assets, and command networks before escalating to more controversial targets. The US has already struck Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas, and President Trump has warned that the US could resume bombing Iran if negotiations fail. Iran has continued to move crude oil through covert shipping networks, and the US may continue to tighten economic pressure before considering more aggressive military action.
Our Reading
As expected, the matter has reached another stage.
The US and Iran are engaging in a familiar dance of escalation and counter-escalation. The US is threatening to target Iran’s military capabilities, while Iran is continuing to move oil through covert networks. The two sides are engaged in a “contest for escalation control,” with the US seeking to strip away Iran’s leverage and Iran seeking to impose costs without provoking regime-threatening retaliation. The US is considering a range of options, including targeting Iran’s fast attack boats, missile systems, and command networks. The situation is fragile, and the stakes are high.
The US is also considering targeting Iran’s dual-use infrastructure, such as electric generating plants and oil infrastructure, but this presents significant legal and operational challenges. The US is walking a fine line between applying pressure and avoiding a wider conflict.
One thing is clear: the US and Iran are locked in a cycle of escalation, and it’s unclear how far things will go.
