Source: Fortune.com
Summary
According to a recent analysis by Indeed’s Hiring Lab, women now hold more payroll jobs than men in the United States, a trend that has been observed twice before but this time appears to be structurally different. The labor force participation rate for men has fallen nearly 20 points since 1948, while the female rate has jumped from 32% to 57.2%. The gap in labor force participation rate has narrowed, with men’s rate falling to 67.2% and women’s rate rising to 57.2%. The trend is attributed to various factors, including the growth of female-dominated sectors such as healthcare and social assistance, and the decline of male-skewing sectors like manufacturing and tech.
Our Reading
The numbers tell one story. Men are exiting the workforce at a rate that dwarfs women’s decline, with the male labor force participation rate dropping two points since before Covid. The pipeline is female, the growth sectors are female, and the jobs most protected from AI displacement are female. The stay-at-home boyfriend is no longer just a TikTok trend, but a Federal Reserve data point. The woman paying his rent is, increasingly, the American economy. The trend shows no post-recession bounce, no cyclical correction, no historical parallel to prior reversals. It’s more like a one-way door.
The data point about men spending more time on video games and recreational computer use, calculated by economists to explain nearly half the increase in young men’s leisure hours, is an interesting aspect of this trend. The opioid epidemic and the lack of government assistance programs for men without a disability are also contributing factors.
The fact that women already have the training for the jobs that exist, particularly in female-dominated sectors like healthcare and social assistance, is another key factor. The educational programs feeding the growth sectors are becoming more female over time, with 87% of nursing bachelor’s students and 96.4% of speech-language pathology master’s students being female.
The trend in the labor force participation gap shows no sign of reversing, with the stay-at-home boyfriend becoming a statistically significant labor market phenomenon. The woman paying his rent is, increasingly, the American economy.
The announcement sounds familiar. The strategy enters a familiar phase. The numbers tell one story, but the narrative gets complicated.
Author: Evan Null
