Source: Fortune.com
Summary
Economists are debating whether AI is boosting productivity, with some pointing to a J-curve effect where massive investment precedes benefits. Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok notes that AI is not yet visible in macroeconomic data, while economist Erik Brynjolfsson argues that the latest jobs report suggests a surge in productivity. Brynjolfsson’s analysis shows a 2.7% jump in US productivity in 2025, nearly double the annual average over the past decade. Other experts also see signs of AI-driven productivity growth in the ICT industries.
Our Reading
The numbers tell one story.
Economists are waiting for AI’s impact on productivity to show up in the data. Apollo’s Torsten Slok says AI is “everywhere except in the incoming macroeconomic data.” Meanwhile, Erik Brynjolfsson points to the latest jobs report as evidence of a productivity surge. Brynjolfsson’s analysis shows a 2.7% jump in US productivity in 2025, nearly double the annual average over the past decade. The J-curve effect may be at play, where massive investment precedes benefits. The transition from an era of AI experimentation to one of structural utility is underway.
When executives talk about “structural utility,” they’re talking about the point at which AI starts to pay off in a big way.
Author: Evan Null
