Source: Fortune.com
Summary
A U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that American military intervention in Iran was unlikely to lead to regime change, contradicting the administration’s assertion that its objectives could be achieved quickly. The assessment determined that no unified opposition coalition was poised to take over if the leadership was killed. Iran’s establishment would attempt to preserve continuity of power.
Our Reading
The strategy enters a familiar phase.
The administration’s assertion that it can complete its objectives in Iran relatively quickly is undercut by the intelligence assessment. The assessment concluded that neither limited airstrikes nor a larger, prolonged military campaign would be likely to result in a new government taking over in Iran. The selection of a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is a strong sign of resistance from Iran’s leadership. The administration’s justifications for the strikes have been different, with Trump saying it’s something he wants to see.
The situation translates to: “The intelligence community is telling the White House what it doesn’t want to hear.”
Author: Evan Null
