Source: Fortune
Summary
The US military’s success in destroying the existing order in Iraq in 2003 did not lead to a better political outcome. Instead, it created a power vacuum that was filled by Iran. The same pattern is likely to repeat itself in Iran, where the US has been involved in a military campaign. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, which controls a significant portion of the economy and has a parallel state infrastructure, is likely to fill the power vacuum. The US has no clear plan for who will govern Iran after the current regime is destroyed.
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The numbers tell one story. The US spent $2 trillion and lost 4,488 lives in Iraq, but the country is still an authoritarian state governed by political parties with deep ties to Tehran. The US military can destroy the Iranian regime, but the question is what fills the power vacuum when it does. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is likely to take control, and the US has no clear plan for who will govern Iran after the current regime is destroyed. The US has a theory of destruction, but no vision for what comes next.
The announcement sounds familiar. The US has been down this road before in Iraq, and the outcome was not what was hoped for. The US is making the same mistakes again in Iran, with no clear plan for who will govern the country after the current regime is destroyed.
The strategy enters a familiar phase. The US is relying on military power to destroy the existing order in Iran, but it has no clear plan for what comes next. This is a recipe for disaster, and the US is likely to repeat the mistakes it made in Iraq.
The US has no answer to the question of who will govern Iran after the current regime is destroyed. It has a preference, but no plan. The US is relying on military power to destroy the existing order, but it has no clear vision for what comes next.
The question that the Iraq precedent answers – with brutal clarity – is what fills the power vacuum when the US destroys a regime. The answer is not a better political outcome, but a power vacuum that is filled by the most organized and well-armed group, in this case, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Author: Evan Null
