Source: Fortune
Summary
A labor studies scholar notes that union voters, particularly in key swing states, are disillusioned with the current economic conditions and political leadership. Rising costs, job losses, and the impact of automation and trade policies have left many union members and their families concerned. The 2024 election saw a decline in union support for Democrats compared to previous decades, and recent polls suggest continued dissatisfaction with President Trump. Union voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada could play a decisive role in the 2026 midterms, as their influence in close races remains significant.
Our Reading
The numbers tell one story.
Union membership has declined steadily since the 1980s, with public sector workers still more represented than private sector.
Trump’s promises on manufacturing and inflation have not translated into visible gains for union voters.
Recent rulings and lawsuits show resistance to his labor policies, but the long-term impact is unclear.
The union vote is a bellwether for economic anxiety and political disillusionment.
Author: Evan Null
The union vote
Over generations, the majority of union members have sided with Democratic candidates, even if that support has wavered since the 1970s.
The 2024 presidential campaign was no exception. The majority of union members voted for Democratic candidates, but at a far lower rate than in the 1960s.
Why does this matter in 2026? Union voters play a bigger role in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada, three swing states where the share of voters who belong to unions is above the national average of 10%.
In closely contested House and Senate races, even a small shift in union votes could influence the outcome.
The volatility of these voting blocs matters in close elections, as seen in recent polls and legal challenges.
What’s in store this November?
How large is the union vote? The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics figures show that the percentage of U.S. unionized workers has fallen over the past four decades.
In 1983, 20.1% of U.S. workers were represented by a union. In 2025, the rate was 10.0%, or 14.7 million people. Union membership among public sector workers (32.9%) is more than five times higher than that of private sector workers (5.9%).
During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump promised to reduce consumer prices, bring back manufacturing jobs, and respect workers’ rights.
As the midterm elections approach, I believe the president’s performance on these issues in the eyes of union voters will determine which party controls the House and Senate.
The signs are not promising for Trump, with recent polls indicating the president’s support among union households is eroding.
Manufacturing jobs and inflation
The U.S. economy has lost 75,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2025, a 0.6% decline. These jobs have steadily declined since the 1980s, so Trump’s policies are not solely to blame.
Furthermore, Trump’s off-again, on-again tariffs may help some U.S. manufacturers. That’s because tariffs can erase the advantages of low-cost overseas labor.
The bigger problem, though, is that even if some manufacturing returns to the U.S., the work will likely be done with the latest manufacturing technologies, which tend to reduce the need for workers.
In July 2026, Moody’s financial analyst Mark Zandi told Marketplace that more manufacturing output “doesn’t translate into jobs.”
Additionally, Trump has not established a clear plan to lower inflation. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that food prices in July 2026 were up 3.0% from July 2025.
Union representation
The Civil Service Reform Act of 1978 allowed government workers to unionize. But a March 2025 White House announcement said the legislation had enabled “hostile Federal unions to obstruct agency management.”
Through an executive order and mass layoffs across the federal workforce in 2025, Trump has presided over a dramatic change in public sector collective bargaining in Washington, D.C.
Offering guidance on the 2025 executive order, the U.S. Office of Personnel Management directed federal agencies to end their collective bargaining agreement.
In response, the American Federation of Government Employees condemned the action in an email to its members, saying the Trump administration was “illegally stripping collective bargaining rights from hundreds of thousands of federal workers.”
Federal unions have challenged the White House’s March 2025 executive order. In 2026, independent arbitrators have also ruled against the administration’s efforts to circumvent labor agreements with some federal workers.
