Source: Fortune
Summary
Despite tensions between the US and Europe, their military and economic ties are too intertwined to split, according to Dan Alamariu, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro. The US and Europe have a complex relationship, with the US relying on European allies for military power and Europe depending on the US for high-end deterrence and warfighting enablers. The two partners have extremely complex economic ties, covering supply chains, services, foreign direct investment, and financial flows. Alamariu notes that the US cannot afford to lose its superpower status, and Europe cannot break free from its dependence on the US military.
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The US and Europe are stuck in a “loveless, if still convenient, marriage” due to their deep military and economic ties. The US relies on European allies for military power, while Europe depends on the US for high-end deterrence and warfighting enablers. Despite tensions, collaboration between the two will likely persist. The US cannot afford to lose its superpower status, and Europe cannot break free from its dependence on the US military.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s vow to remain involved in Europe and the Trump administration’s goal to reshape the alliance only adds to the complexity of the relationship. The fact that Europe is boosting defense spending, but not enough to achieve strategic autonomy, highlights the delicate balance between the two partners.
The situation is further complicated by the US’s deteriorating fiscal picture and its dependence on European buyers of Treasury debt. The American economy’s outperformance makes it attractive to investors, while Europe lacks a viable alternative to Treasuries.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas’s statement that the US needs Europe to maintain its superpower status only underscores the codependence between the two partners.
As long as Russia remains a threat, Europe will likely continue to manage its tensions with the US rather than seek a full-blown rupture.
Ultimately, the US and Europe are stuck with each other, in an increasingly loveless, if still convenient, marriage.
Author: Evan Null
