Source: Fortune
Summary
Goldman Sachs’ analysis reports an 80% decline in net immigration to the US, attributing it to President Trump’s immigration policies. The investment bank predicts a significant drop in the arrival of new workers, from 1 million per year in the 2010s to 200,000 in 2026. This shift is forcing economists to recalibrate their benchmarks for the US economy, as fewer immigrants means fewer new workers entering the labor force. The “breakeven rate” of job growth is expected to fall from 70,000 to 50,000 jobs per month by the end of 2026. The report also highlights the potential for a “shadow workforce” and economic risks due to stricter immigration enforcement.
Our Reading
The numbers tell one story.
Goldman Sachs’ report reveals a dramatic contraction in the flow of foreign-born workers, with an 80% decline in net immigration. The investment bank’s economists, led by David Mericle, attribute this shift to President Trump’s immigration policies, including elevated deportations and stricter visa bans. The report warns that this decline will fundamentally alter the nation’s labor supply mathematics and lower the threshold for job growth needed to maintain economic stability. The “breakeven rate” of job growth is expected to fall, and the labor market is becoming increasingly reliant on productivity gains to make up for the lack of new workers.
One original observation: The economy is learning to make do without the crucial layer of immigrant labor that fueled the last regime.
Author: Evan Null
