Source: Fortune.com
Summary
The war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, which began in February 2026, initially raised fears of global economic collapse, including soaring oil prices and a worldwide recession. However, six months into the conflict, those predictions have not materialized. The global economy has shown resilience, with stock markets recovering sharply after an early downturn. The International Monetary Fund noted that while the war has strained growth, optimism around artificial intelligence has offset some of the damage. Meanwhile, oil prices have remained elevated, impacting travel and agriculture, and the Trump family has benefited from defense contracts and investments in military suppliers.
Our Reading
The numbers tell one story.
Stocks bounced back after a sharp drop in early 2026.
Oil prices stayed high, hurting travelers and farmers.
Electric vehicle sales surged in some regions.
The Trump family profited from defense contracts and military investments.
The war has tested the global economy, but it has not collapsed.
Author: Evan Null
War and Economic Resilience
The war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, which began in February 2026, initially raised fears of global economic collapse, including soaring oil prices and a worldwide recession. However, six months into the conflict, those predictions have not materialized. The global economy has shown resilience, with stock markets recovering sharply after an early downturn. The International Monetary Fund noted that while the war has strained growth, optimism around artificial intelligence has offset some of the damage. Meanwhile, oil prices have remained elevated, impacting travel and agriculture, and the Trump family has benefited from defense contracts and investments in military suppliers.
Stock Market Recovery
After a sharp decline in the early weeks of the war, the U.S. stock market staged a significant recovery. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posted substantial gains, with the Nasdaq surging 27% since the market bottom in late March. If these gains continue, all three indices could post their fourth consecutive year of gains. This recovery has been driven by a mix of factors, including strong corporate earnings and continued investor confidence in the tech sector.
Impact on Oil and Travel
The war has had a significant impact on oil prices, with Brent crude climbing to as high as $120 a barrel. Although prices have eased, they remain about 20% higher than before the conflict. This has led to higher fuel costs for consumers and businesses, with jet fuel prices expected to be 70% higher than in 2025. Airlines have responded by raising ticket prices, increasing baggage fees, and adding fuel surcharges, which has reduced consumer choice and increased costs for travelers.
Electric Vehicles and Clean Energy
The war has also had a positive impact on the adoption of electric vehicles and clean energy. In several countries, including Singapore, New Zealand, and Colombia, EV sales have surged, with some regions seeing growth rates of over 100%. This shift has been driven by rising fuel costs and a growing awareness of the need for energy independence. Countries reliant on Persian Gulf oil have also accelerated their investments in renewable energy and nuclear power to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels.
Trump Family and Defense Contracts
The Trump family has benefited significantly from the war, with several members involved in defense-related businesses. Eric and Donald Trump Jr. are set to take Powerus public after winning a $90 million Air Force contract. Don Jr. is also part of 1789 Capital Management, which has stakes in military contractors like Anduril and SpaceX. The president himself has seen his investment portfolio grow, with shares in military suppliers like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman increasing in value. While the White House denies any conflicts of interest, the war has clearly benefited the Trump family financially.
