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Source: Fortune.com
Summary
JPMorgan Global Research forecasts that home prices will remain flat in 2026, with a slight improvement in demand likely to neutralize a supply uptick. According to the report, price growth will stall at 0% this year, with an expected dip in adjustable-rate mortgages and homebuilders offering rate buydowns to lower mortgages. The Federal Reserve’s continued lowering of borrowing costs is also expected to help buyers. However, President Donald Trump’s efforts to improve affordability have had little impact, and his proposals, such as banning institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, are unlikely to be a game-changer.
Our Reading
The numbers tell one story. JPMorgan’s forecast paints a picture of a stagnant housing market, with prices expected to remain flat in 2026. Despite efforts to improve affordability, demand is expected to remain sluggish, and supply is expected to increase. The report highlights the expected dip in adjustable-rate mortgages and homebuilders’ rate buydowns as potential factors that could help buyers. However, President Trump’s proposals are unlikely to have a significant impact.
The announcement sounds familiar. JPMorgan’s forecast is just the latest in a series of predictions that the housing market will slow down in 2026. The report’s emphasis on the need for homebuilders to offer rate buydowns to lower mortgages is a familiar refrain in the industry. The forecast’s conclusion that prices will remain flat is also in line with previous predictions.
The strategy enters a familiar phase. JPMorgan’s forecast suggests that the housing market is entering a phase of slowing growth, with prices expected to remain flat. This is a familiar pattern in the industry, as the market tends to slow down after a period of rapid growth.
Original observation: When the market slows down, the language of affordability and demand becomes a convenient distraction from the real issue.
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Author: Evan Null
